18 Aug '12, 12am

Diary of A Singaporean Mind: Fertility vs Housing Prices .....Part 2

Diary of A Singaporean Mind: Fertility vs Housing Prices .....Part 2

Part 1 shown below. Some people complain not very rigorous and the small sample size of a few selected countries.. Now for part 2 (thanks to a comment in TRE that lead to this research paper). "This article extends a standard Beckerian model of fertility behavior to formulate the effect of house price (HP) on fertility. The simple model predicts a negative effect of HP on the number of children for a representative household not only through the income effect but also through the compensated substitution effect. The prediction is confirmed by a cointegration analysis applied to the annual data at the aggregate level covering the period from 1971 to 2005 in Hong Kong. It is found that a 1% increase in HP is significantly related to a 0.45% decrease in total fertility rates (TFRs), which is robust in sensitivity tests with an alternative model specification and alternative m...

Full article: http://singaporemind.blogspot.com/2012/08/fertility-vs-ho...

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