16 Jun '11, 12am

Black swans in Singapore? | The Gigamole Diaries #sgelections #sgelection

Black swans in Singapore? | The Gigamole Diaries #sgelections #sgelection

The black swan metaphor was introduced to us by Naseem Nicholas Taleb to describe a high impact outlier phenomenon that no body expects and one that takes everyone by surprise. The recent global recession related to the collapse of Lehman Brothers was such a black swan event. And like all black swans it can be rationalized after the event, when everyone kicks themselves in the backside and wonders why they never recognized it coming. Although not global in magnitude, there have been a number of black swans seen in Singapore recently. The GE2011 results for example, caught many people in the PAP by surprise. The flooding in Orchard Road was another such event. In retrospect however, these events could have been easily predicted, and now we have the unusual situation where many people in the gahment are kicking themselves wondering how they missed the picture. Often therefor...

Full article: http://gigomole.blogspot.com/2011/06/black-swans-in-singa...

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Hoisted by the presidential petard #sgpresident #singapore #sgelections #sgelection #sgpolitics #tankinlian

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