28 Mar '15, 11pm

USD rally may be nearing its end

After several months of continuous gains, USD index is looking quite stretched as is visible in the deviation of the price from the monthly exponential moving averages (13-26). The price has rarely deviated so greatly from the moving averages in the past decade and this is a clear sign of an overheated trade. A consolidation is necessary, but may easily turn into a swift correction given the large scale longs riding this trade. I would strongly advise to book profits on the USD trades and wait for a few months for the market to cool down. For those who are more “fundamentally driven” instead of reading the price action, my view is that interest rates in US are not gonna start rising so fast and that would be the catalyst for the correction. Whatever the news, the trade is over for me! Time to long the EURO as a proxy, …

Full article: http://thefinance.sg/2015/03/29/usd-rally-may-be-nearing-...

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