16 Sep '11, 12am

Shiller using the P/E Ratio to predict the “Lost Decade” in 1996 – and being wrong

The theory that the stock market is approximately a random walk does not look right at all: Figure 1 is a (log-log) scatter diagram showing for each year 1901–1986 the ratio of the real Standard and Poor Index ten years later to the real index today (on the y axis) versus a certain price–earnings ratio: the ratio of the real Standard and Poor Composite Index for the first year of the ten year interval, divided by a lagged thirty year moving average of real earnings corresponding to the Standard and Poor Index (on the x axis). Index values are for January, conversion of nominal values to real values is done by the January Producer Price Index. The variable shown on the x axis is publicly known at the beginning of each ten year interval. If real stock prices were a random walk, they should …

Full article: http://thefinance.sg/2011/09/16/shiller-using-the-pe-rati...

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